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Glenda Umaña
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Calentamiento global expondrá a millones a inundaciones

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Asia sería el más afectado, con entre 70 y 156 millones de personas en riesgo por inundaciones en 2040.

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#África
#Asia
#Ciencia
#Clima
#EEUU
#Estudio
#Europa
#inundacion
#MedioAmbiente
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11 Enero, 2018

AFP

El calentamiento global provocará más lluvias, exponiendo a millones de personas a sufrir inundaciones por el desbordamiento de ríos, particularmente en Estados Unidos, parte de Asia, África y Europa Central.

El estudio, publicado en la revista Science Advances, calcula cuantas medidas de protección más se necesitan para evitar los riesgos que representarán las constantes inundaciones en los próximos 25 años.

A menos de que se tomen acciones --como aumentar los diques, fomentar normas de construcción, reubicar asentamientos y mejorar la gestión de los ríos--, podría dispararse el número de personas afectadas por inundaciones devastadoras, alertó el reporte, basado en modelos que son 10 veces más precisos que los que usan los simuladores del clima por computadora.

Asia --el continente con el mayor historial de grandes inundaciones-- sería el más afectado, con entre 70 y 156 millones de personas en riesgo en 2040.

Pakistán, que ya es propenso a sufrir fuertes desbordamientos, "verá como casi se dobla el riesgo por grandes inundaciones", con 11 millones de personas susceptibles de verse afectadas a menos que se tomen medidas para 2040.

"En Sudamérica el número de personas afectadas por inundaciones seguramente aumentará de 6 a 12 millones, en África de 25 a 34 millones", añadió el reporte.

En Alemania se prevé que el número de personas afectadas crezca siete veces, de 100.000 a 700.000 personas.

En América del Norte, podría aumentar de 100.000 a un millón.

"Más de la mitad de Estados Unidos debe al menos duplicar su nivel se protección en las próximas dos décadas si quiere evitar un dramático crecimiento del riesgo de inundaciones", dijo el director del estudio, Sven Willner, del Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

El riesgo de desbordamiento de ríos para las próximas décadas es provocado por las emisiones de gases invernadero que son lanzadas al ambiente por el uso de gasolinas fósiles.

En la medida en que los contaminantes se quedan contenidos en la Tierra, hay una mayor humedad en el aire que desencadena más lluvias.

Reducir estas emisiones es crucial para bajar el riesgo de inundaciones para las futuras generaciones.

"Está claro que sin limitar las causas humanas del calentamiento por debajo de dos grados Celcius, el riesgo por inundaciones de ríos en nuestro siglo crecerá en muchas regiones a un nivel al que no podremos adaptarnos", dijo Anders Levermann, un investigador del Observatorio de la Tierra Lamont-Doherty, de la Universidad de Columbia, en Nueva York.

"Los hallazgos deberían ser una alerta para los funcionarios que toman decisiones", añadió Levermann. "No hacer nada será peligroso".

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LAS MÁS LEIDAS

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GLENDA AHORA “LAS COSAS COMO SON” DIEGO DELFINO

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Enorme carencia en enseñanza de periodismo emprendedor

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